Monday, October 19, 2026 · Published 7:20 AM MT
The Morning Call
A 1–100 rating on the trading day ahead. Above 55 leans up, below 45 leans down, 45–55 is flat or mixed. Ratings are never revised.
60
Outlook Rating
Upside bias — expect a solidly up day.
Why today
- Tech relief bounce after a record skid. Futures green — Nasdaq futures +1.0%, S&P futures +0.5%. The Philadelphia semis index fell a record 8 straight sessions (−16%, over $1T wiped out), so this is oversold relief: CoreWeave up premarket on a Goldman upgrade to Buy, Broadcom +2.3%, Intel +4% on a JPMorgan upgrade, Nvidia +1–2%.
- October hike repriced out, December still live. CME FedWatch: October hike odds down to ~17% (markets see a hold), December hike ~89%. Fed blackout is on — no speakers all week.
- Oil plunging on the Russia-sanctions waiver. Brent −1.5–1.8% to ~$107–108, WTI −3% to ~$98.30 — inflation relief, and a tailwind for the tape.
- The binary earnings week is here. Netflix reports Tuesday after the close; Meta and Tesla both report Wednesday after the close — the week's main event. S&P 500 Q3 earnings expected +30.7% year over year.
- AI-credit stress unresolved — caps the upside. CoreWeave cratered −11.9% Friday to $61.39 with credit-default swaps at a record; contagion hit the neocloud names. The bounce is analyst-defense relief, not resolution.
Data snapshot
| Measure | Reading |
|---|
| Treasury 2Y | 4.763% ▲ |
| Treasury 5Y | 4.914% ▲ |
| Treasury 10Y | 5.111% ▲ |
| Treasury 30Y | 5.448% ▲ |
| VIX (Friday close) | 19.99 ▲ — a 60-session high |
| S&P 500 futures (ES) | ▲ +0.5% premarket |
| Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) | ▲ +1.0% premarket |
| Dow futures (YM) | ~flat premarket |
| Gold | ~$4,185 ▲ |
| Bitcoin | ~$82,300 ▲ |
Prior-day closes (Fri Oct 16): Dow 52,002.41 (−0.34%), S&P 500 7,659.44 (−1.09%), Nasdaq 26,140.03 (−2.15%).
How the call did
Judged at the close. See the End of Day Update →